Climate Change in South-East-Asia

SANDER + PARTNER supports the Asian Development Bank with mapping of climate change.

Munich, 2 August 2017

Climate change will severely hit the South-East Asian low-lying countries. International development banks like the Asian Development Bank have already started to prepare themselves defeating the impact of climate change. Investment into infrastructure, agriculture, fisheries or health care require re-thinking and adaptation which reflects the impact of climate change. For this, detailed knowledge about climate change is a must.

The Asian Development Bank has committed SANDER + PARTNER to develop high resolution climate maps for the most vulnerable countries of South-East Asia. The maps shall show the local impact of climate change for Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and the Maldives.

Using geo-statistical climate modelling, the results of IPCC's climate scenarios have been re-mapped at very high resolution. The new maps show detailed pictures of climate change at city or community level.

Climate Scenario 2011 - 2020
2011 - 2020

2021 - 2030

2031 - 2040

2041 - 2050

The maps show the future development of the average daily temperature in the Maldives until 2050. The climate scenario assumes internationally agreed policy which meets the target of a global temperature increase limited to 1.5 degree until 2100. This implies reduced CO2 emissions and the implementation of appropriate energy policies. Even though, a temperature increase of one degree will hit the Maldives 50 years earlier, already by the mid-century.


Assessment of the local impact of climate change requires high resolution mapping

Cities located in Bangladesh will suffer from even higher temperatures. The high resolution mapping indicates strong temperature increase combined with nearly unchanged average precipitation. Increased temperature will rise costs of the public health care sector, the agriculture and some industries.

For the first time, the new high resolution climate maps exhibit climate change at city or community level. In additions, different climate scenarios are considered which reflect the success or ignorance of internationally agreed climate policy.

Increase of temperature in the capital of Bangladesh depends strongly on the targeted CO2 emissions. Dramatically higher costs will arise in case the international community will fail to limit the global CO2 emissions.

Climate Scenario RCP45
RCP45: Successfull Climate Policy

RCP85: Failure to Meet Climate Policy

The maps show the daily average temperature until 2050 in Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh. A successfull climate policy (RCP45, left image) will slow down temperature increase down-town of Dhaka while a failure to meet the target of the international climate agreements will lead to substantially increased temperatures (RCP85, right image).


Early assessment of climate change impact keeps costs lower

The Maldives, Sri Lanka or Bangladesh are among the most vulnerable countries prone to climate change. Investment into the future development of these countries will be adapted onto the consequences out of climate change. For examples Sri Lanka: it is well known that change in precipitation result in more frequent or even larger landslides. During the severe weather in 2017, more than 100 people have been killed by landslides and more than a half million people had to leave their homes.

High resolution climate maps provide a substantial planning tool not only for emergency management but also for planning of the national infrastructure. The new high resolution climate maps exhibit rich details, which were unknown until recently. The maps allow identification of those areas which are most affected by climate change. Using improved tools encourages early protection and mitigation. High resolution climate maps support early action and reduce the costs of climate change substantially.


Precipitation during monsoon season: Successfull climate policy
Climate Scenario RCP45
2011 - 2020
Climate Scenario RCP45
2021 - 2030
Climate Scenario RCP45
2031 - 2040
Climate Scenario RCP45
2041 - 2050



Precipitation during monsoon season: Collapse of climate policy
Climate Scenario RCP45
2011 - 2020
Climate Scenario RCP45
2021 - 2030
Climate Scenario RCP45
2031 - 2040
Climate Scenario RCP45
2041 - 2050

The images show precipition during the monsoon season in Sri Lanka. A successfull climate policy (RCP45, upper row) does limit precipition while failure to meet CO2 reduction (RCP85, lower row) results in locally increased precipitation. High resolution mapping exhibit those areas affected by climate change.


At a glance:

  1. The Asian Development Bank has committed SANDER + PARTNER to establish high resolution map of climate change for the most vulnerable countries in South-East Asia.
  2. For the first time, climate maps are established for the Maldives, Sri Lanka and Bangladesch which allow identification of climate impact down to community level.
  3. Climate mapping is evenly well part of emergency management or for planning of national infrastructure.
  4. High resolutin mapping of climate impact helps to reduce the cost of climate change.

This text and the pictures are property of SANDER + PARTNER. Please send us a note and we will be pleased to place our property at your disposal.

Contact: info@sander-partner.com
or call:
Dr. Johannes Sander +49(0)89.55 00 66 30